Politics & Government Control Of U.S. Senate On Midterm Election Ballots; 35 Seats At Stake High-stakes races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in play to decide the U.S. Senate majority party. Replies (2)
Thirty-five U.S. Senate seats will be decided in the midterm election contests that are unfolding against a backdrop of high inflation of economic turmoil, the elimination of federal abortion rights and broad concerns about the future of democracy. (Shutterstock)
ACROSS AMERICA — Control of the U.S. Senate — whether Democrats can keep a slim margin or Republicans can wrest back control of the chamber — rests on a handful of key races in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
In all, 35 U.S. Senate seats will be decided in the election that is unfolding against a backdrop of high inflation of economic turmoil, the elimination of federal abortion rights and broad concerns about the future of democracy. Of the Senate seats up this year are 14 controlled by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. The stakes are high for President Joe Biden, who would be dealt a major setback in his ability to make progress on key priorities in the last two years of his term if Republicans win the Senate majority. Republicans are widely favored to win control of the House after Tuesday’s elections.
“If we don’t win, they’re going to wipe out everything we’ve done,” Biden said in an interview Monday on the Rev. Al Sharpton’s radio show. Former Republican President Donald Trump has been campaigning as well, rallying Monday in Dayton, Ohio, for J.D. Vance, who he helped secure the GOP nomination. Vance is running against Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan for the right to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican.
Here are six key Senate races to keep an eye on Tuesday: Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who won the right to fill the late Sen. John McCain’s seat in 2020, is challenged by Republican Blake Masters. Arizona is historically a right-leaning state, but Biden won it by a fraction of a percentage point in 2020.
Kelly, a retired astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, is seen as a moderate who can appeal to middle-of-the-road Republicans and independents. Masters, a venture capitalist who won his primary after embracing Trump’s 2020 election lies, supports a national abortion ban and has called the gender pay gap a “left-wing narrative.” A polling average on RealClear Politics puts Kelly up by 1 percentage point, well within the margin of error.
Georgia Republican Herschel Walker, a former NFL football star whose campaign has been besieged by series of scandals involving abortion and domestic abuse, is challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in what is expected to be one of the closest races in the midterm election cycle. The senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, Warnock won the seat in a special January 2021 runoff election — one of two to decide Georgia’s Senate delegation. RealClear Politics’ polling average puts the two candidates neck-and-neck, but gives a slim, 0.06 percentage point advantage to Walker, who has been endorsed by Trump. Nevada: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate, is defending her term against Republican state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who led his party’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. RealClear Politics’ polling average puts Laxalt up by 2.8 percentage points. Nevada is 30 percent Latino, according to the U.S. Census, and political analysts view the race as a bellwether on whether Democrats can reverse the number of Latinos leaving the party to vote for Republicans.
New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army general, is running against incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Bolduc has sent mixed signals to Republican supporters, including waffling on 2020 election denial claims, calling for the abolishment of the FBI and advancing COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Hassan is up by 1 percentage point, according to the RealClear Politics polling average. Pennsylvania In one of the most closely watched Senate races, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz is running against Pennsylvania’s Democratic lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, to fill the Keystone State’s open seat. Fetterman, a pro-union progressive, only recently returned to the campaign trail after suffering a stroke in May, leading to challenges on his fitness to serve in office. Oz, who lives in New Jersey and has been criticized as a carpetbagger, is firmly anti-abortion and said recently that women, their doctors and “local political leaders” should be involved in decisions about abortion. RealClear Politics gives Oz a razor-thin advantage in its polling average, putting him up by 0.1 percentage points.
Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is challenged by the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes. Wisconsin has a nearly even party split, adding suspense to the race. RealClear Politics’ polling average shows Johnson ahead by 2.8 percentage points, but that’s within the margin of error of the polls used to come up with the aggregate. Johnson is seen as vulnerable due to his controversial statements about COVID-19 vaccines causing AIDS, which he later said had been taken out of context. Johnson also has been criticized for his involvement in attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. Conservatives argue Barnes is too radical for Wisconsin because he supported Medicare for All. He also has been criticized as soft on immigration after he was photographed in 2018 wearing a shirt that read, “Abolish ICE.” Here’s a quick look at the other 29 Senate races to be decided in the midterms and what RealClear Politics averages show: Alaska: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is challenged in a three-way race by Republican Kelly Tshibaka, who has served in several federal inspector general offices, and Democrat Pat Chesbro, an educator. Republican Tshibaka is favored in the Alaska race. (The top four vote-getters in the open primary, regardless of party affiliation, advanced to the general election, in which ranked choice voting is used. A lesser-known Republican withdrew).
Missouri: Republican Eric Schmitt, Missouri’s current attorney general, vs. Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine, a nurse and member of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company founding family, in the race for the open seat. The Republican is favored. North Carolina: Democrat Cheri Lynn Beasley, a former state Supreme Court justice, vs. Republican Ted Budd, a small business owner. The Republican is favored. North Dakota: Republican Sen. John Hoeven vs. Democrat Katrina Christiansen, a political newcomer and University of Jamestown (North Dakota) engineering professor. The Republican is favored. New York: Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer vs. Republican Joe Pinion, a political news commentator. The Democrat is favored. Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance, a Marine, businessman and author, vs. U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat. The Republican is favored.
Control Of U.S. Senate On Midterm Election Ballots; 35 Seats At Stake
