2019 Vs 2024: Tracking The Development Of Mexico’s Air Routes To & From The US

Compared to the last five years, have the flights to the US’s southern neighbor of Mexico increased or decreased? It turns out that flights are up remarkably – much more than the 11% increase recorded over the same period to South American countries. This article compares US/Mexican flights in the month of November 2019 (on the eve of the pandemic) with November 2024 using data provided by Cirium, an aviation analytics company.
Growth of flights to Mexico
In November 2019, there were a total of 20,029 flights scheduled between the two countries, and in November 2024, that number is to rise to 25,145 – a 25% increase. However, that number hides the real increase in United States and Mexico air travel. It appears that the flights have gotten larger with greater seat capacities. In November 2019, flights carried 2.9 million seats, but in November, it is set to be 4.1 million—a 43% increase.
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Flights were up with all major airlines operating between the United States and Mexico. Flights are up to many destinations across Mexico. Mexico is a massive country and is the largest Spanish-speaking country in the world and second most populous in Latin America (behind Brazil). Mexico City is the largest city in North America (although the busiest routes from the United States are to the beaches of Cancun).
Top five airlines flying between the United States and Mexico by flights Airline: November 2019 November 2024 Change in flights: Change in seats: American Airlines: 4,392 5,917 +35% +57% United Airlines: 4,763 4,812 +1% +19% Volaris: 2,106 3,425 +63% +83% Aeromexico: 1,710 2,672 +56% +71% Delta Air Lines: 1,871 2,026 +8 +19%
In November 2019, United Airlines operated the most flights to Mexico, but it fell to second place behind American Airlines in November 2024. Notably, while its flights only grew by 1%, its seat capacity grew by almost 20%. American Airlines saw a massive increase growing 35% in flights and 57% in seat capacity.
Aeromexico 737-9 Kukulcan Special Livery ln 8958, XA-GQS, Boeing Field. Photo: Preston Fiedler | Simple Flying
Big risers also include the low-cost Mexican airline. Volaris – growing 63% in flights and 83% in seating capacity. Aeromexico (the Mexican flag carrier) also grew 56% in flights and 71% in seats.
Change in US/Mexican flights: Total Nov 2019 Total Nov 2024 Change Total monthly flights: 20,096 25,145 +25% Total seats: 2,892,924 4,147,929 +43% Total ASMs: 3,708,768,775 5,215,703,468 +41%
Related Examined: American Airlines’ Top US-Mexico Routes American Airlines operates most of its busiest Mexican flights out of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
Partly driven by an increase in leisure travel
While some places are overwhelmingly leisure destinations (like Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic), some have more migrant (or similar) traffic. Still others are heavily business routes (like NYC to London). Mexico is something of a mix of all three.
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The United States has very strong economic ties with Mexico (Mexico is more or less tied with Canada as the US’s largest trading partner), there are also many millions of Americans of Mexican descent and migrants working in the United States. Mexico is also a top leisure destination for American holidaymakers.
Change in US/Cancun flights: Total Nov 2019 Total Nov 2024 Change Total monthly flights: 4,275 5,855 +37% Total seats: 757,182 1,062,672 +40% Total ASMs: 972,626,325 1,390,670,828 +43%
While Mexico City may have a large mix of travelers, Cancun is mostly a leisure destination. Comparing flights to Cancun International Airport over the last five years shows that much of the airline growth has been driven by leisure travel (although air traffic is likely up across all categories). In November 2019, there were 4,275 flights from the United States, and in November 2024, that had increased 37% to 5,855 monthly flights. Seating capacity increased from 757,182 to 1,062,672 – a 40% increase.
Photo: Ronen Fefer | Shutterstock
Top US/Cancun airlines November 2024:
American Airlines: 1,408 scheduled flights
United Airlines: 1,160 scheduled flights
Southwest Airlines: 807 scheduled flights
Delta Air Lines: 792 scheduled flights
JetBlue: 774 scheduled flights
Cancun’s share of all United States flights increased moderately from 21% in November 2019 to 23% in November. Notably, all the top five airlines flying from Cancun to the United States are US-based airlines – with American Airlines in the lead. Two of these airlines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue, only operate domestic US flights or flights to leisure destinations.
Southwest in Cancun
Southwest is scheduled to have the third most flights to Cancun in November 2024. Southwest Airlines is primarily a domestic airline and only operates a limited number of international flights to leisure flights to America’s near-abroad (Mexico and the Caribbean). Southwest only operates a (massive) fleet of Boeing 737s (so it cannot fly long-distance routes) and doesn’t fly to Canada as its system is not set up to hand Canadian dollars.
Related US & European Airlines Cut Flights To China Struggling With Russian Airspace Closure China-based airlines have rapidly outpaced the growth of their Western counterparts on US and Europe-bound markets from their home country.
Post pandemic recovery
Elsewhere, US flights to other regions have also risen to pre-pandemic highs. US flights to South America are modestly up and up 33% to Africa (although from a low base). The dramatic outlier is China. Over the last five years, flights between the United States and China have cratered 74% (although they have completely collapsed between Canada and China – falling a whopping 91%).
Photo: Angel DiBilio | Shutterstock
China’s flights to most international destinations remain depressed compared to prepandemic levels (with the exception of the Middle East). China’s flights to India have been completely severed as India is engaged in an economic (and border) war with China. China’s flights are also down with almost all of its Asian neighbors.