College football roundtable: Is SEC’s last CFP spot Oklahoma’s to lose?

In our college football writers’ roundtable, beat writers Lia Assimakopoulos and Shawn McFarland and columnist Kevin Sherrington tackle trending issues surrounding the sport. You can follow them on X at @Lassimak, @McFarland_Shawn and @KSherringtonDMN.
This week, our writers discuss the College Football Playoff paths for Texas and Oklahoma, UNT’s impressive turnaround and more.
Oklahoma made it through the toughest part of its schedule with road wins over Tennessee and Alabama and appears to be firmly in the CFP picture. With the Sooners out of the SEC Championship hunt and with two home games remaining against Missouri and LSU, do they have a clear path to the CFP?
Assimakopoulos: If Oklahoma wins its final two games against Missouri and LSU, it should have a pretty good chance. The committee wouldn’t surprise anyone by picking five teams from the SEC. Texas A&M and Georgia are locks. Ole Miss and Alabama have pretty good odds. Then, teams like Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt are in the running for what could be that last spot. If Texas beats Texas A&M, it may get a bit complicated, and the committee may have to choose between the two. But as it currently stands, Oklahoma has the most convincing resume.
McFarland: It’ll depend entirely on how many SEC teams the committee grants entry to. League commissioner Greg Sankey wants a 16-team bracket but, until the sport inevitably moves in that direction, the conference can’t sneak half of its member schools in. That brings us back to Oklahoma. The Sooners are part of a three or four-team glut within their own conference. Texas A&M and Georgia are close to locks, Alabama and Ole Miss have second priority and the Red River rivals (plus Vanderbilt, because why not) are third. The SEC had three representatives in last year’s bracket. They may need to squeeze in four or five if the Sooners — regardless of how they finish — want to play.
Sherrington: Clearly they do if they win those last two games, which would give them 10. They’re in the second tier of SEC contenders – with Texas and Vanderbilt – behind Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. Five SEC teams in the CFP is a distinct possibility. The only thing that screws this up for the Sooners is if Texas also wins its last two. But if I were betting now, I’d go with OU.
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Even after falling to Georgia, some have posed the question whether Texas is still in the CFP hunt. Will the selection committee be forced to put Texas in the top 12 if it finishes the regular season with a win over No. 3 Texas A&M?
Assimakopoulos: I don’t think the committee is forced, by any means, to put a three-loss team in the playoff, and Texas faces an uphill battle. There’s certainly a chance that the Longhorns could get lucky and secure one of the lower seeds in the playoff if they beat Texas A&M, but they’ll need some other things to go their way, like Oklahoma and Vanderbilt losing. Even though they beat those teams head-to-head, their overall record is still worse. I assume it will also come down to how many teams in the Big 12, ACC and SEC are worthy of bids. Wouldn’t count on it for Texas.
McFarland: The math doesn’t favor Texas, and at the very least, it’d need help (in other words: collapses) from its conference pals to have a shot. The fact of the matter is there were six SEC teams ranked above the Longhorns in Sunday’s AP Top 25 poll. Texas would have head-to-head wins vs. half of them, though, if it beats A&M next week. Is that enough to convince the committee if the Longhorns, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are left to fight for what may be the last of five playoff berths for the conference? Maybe. I wouldn’t bank on it, though.
Sherrington: The optics of a 25-point loss to Georgia weren’t good. Texas hasn’t been good on the road this year, with its only wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. The Longhorns’ best win remains at the State Fair. Remains to be seen if the committee still takes that into consideration if Oklahoma has the better record. They’ll surely move the Sooners ahead of Texas after Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama. Will that hold if both teams win their last two games? Depends on how the committee feels about Texas taking down an undefeated team and how they look doing it. As noted, I like OU’s chances better.
North Texas was ranked in the AP top 25 poll for the first time since 1959 and controls its CFP destiny. Everybody knows about Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker, but who has been the Mean Green’s unsung hero?
Assimakopoulos: While the Mean Green offense is making headlines, UNT’s new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has helped the defense make key strides contributing to its success. Cassity came over from Sam Houston and his defense is allowing 10 points per game fewer than last year’s and leads the nation in turnover margin per game at +1.4. Outside of the loss to USF, the defense has been solid and the difference from prior UNT teams.
McFarland: How about quarterback’s coach Sean Brophy? Morris (rightfully so) garners the lion’s share of attention as it pertains to the signal caller science at North Texas. Brophy has been alongside him at each of the last three stops and has been able to help assist in the development of every passer from Cam Ward to Chandler Morris to Menstermaker.
Sherrington: Tempted to nominate Caleb Hawkins, the freshman running back, who rushed for five touchdowns against Alabama-Birmingham, giving him 16 on the ground and 19 overall. He’s a key part in Morris’ offense, the nation’s most prolific. But UNT’s ability to generate turnovers – 24, leading all FBS –is the difference. That kept them in the game against South Florida for a half. Skyler Cassity, in his first season at UNT after coaching defense for Sam Houston’s 10-win team last year, will be a hot commodity this off-season, as will Eric Morris. And Hawkins. And Mestemaker.
Marcel Reed had maybe the worst half of his career against South Carolina. He rebounded to lead the Aggies to the largest comeback in program history. Did Reed help or hurt his Heisman case?
Assimakopoulos: No player, even a Heisman winner, is going to have a perfect season, and since Texas A&M won in the end, I don’t think one bad half will do much to hurt Reed. As long as the Aggies keep winning, his case gets stronger, but I still think the gap is too large to close, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin having much better odds.
McFarland: He helped his case because the Aggies remain undefeated and that’ll go a ways once it’s time to vote. He hurt his case — or, at the very least, stagnated it — because he whiffed on an opportunity to pad his stats, win emphatically and close the gap between him, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. If each of the three finish with undefeated records, and team success cancels out, then Sayin and Mendoza have stronger statistical cases. A no-doubter against a stout Longhorns defense, though, could provide a significant boost.
Sherrington: Looked like a wash to me. Reed is at his best as a runner, as we saw on the first drive of the second half against South Carolina, when, on fourth and 12, he made not just one but two Gamecocks whiff in the open field. He’s not as good when he can’t set his feet to throw. But any quarterback of an undefeated team will get serious consideration.
TCU appears to be in freefall, losing two straight and three of its last five games. What is going wrong in Fort Worth?
Assimakopoulos: TCU is starting to unravel on and off the field, and it’s tough to point to one area where things are going wrong. Last week, TCU’s defense allowed BYU to score on its first seven possessions. The offense has been one-dimensional under Josh Hoover without enough of a run game. Plus, Sonny Dykes is losing the fan base and didn’t help himself when asked what he may say to the fan base that is upset with the direction of the program: “People can say what they want to say.” Most teams find their stride by November and play their best football months into the season. TCU’s year has been the opposite.
McFarland: It’s a lack of execution, which is kind of a lazy answer, but the results suggest decent raw numbers and talent haven’t correctly translated. The Horned Frogs have the fifth-best defense and sixth-best offense in the Big 12, per Pro Football Focus, but that hasn’t materialized at a consistent rate. Look at their recent stretch of games: They allowed 14 unanswered points to lose against Iowa State, allowed a not-great West Virginia team to get back into the game in the second half of a win, nearly blew a victory against Baylor and coughed up an advantage late in the Arizona State loss. Save for a fourth-quarter vs. Colorado, they haven’t looked entirely comfortable since their nationally televised win against UNC.
Sherrington: No running game. The Horned Frogs rank near the FBS basement in rushing at 122 yards per game, virtually tied with SMU. The difference is that, unlike Kevin Jennings, Josh Hoover isn’t a dual threat. As defenses have adjusted to TCU’s one-dimensional attack, Hoover’s passer rating has declined from week to week. After averaging 36.3 points in a 5-2 start, they’ve averaged 17.7 in their last three games, two of them losses.