The euro is attempting a modest rebound as climbs to 1.1589, lifting back above short-term moving averages and signalling early signs of bullish momentum. While the pair remains inside a broader consolidation, momentum indicators are improving — raising the possibility that the euro may be gearing up for a breakout attempt in the coming days.
Technical Outlook: Upside Momentum Slowly Rebuilding
EUR/USD’s chart is showing a subtle but meaningful shift:
Price has moved above both the 15-day (1.1574) and 20-day (1.1561) moving averages, signalling short-term bullish rotation.
The moving averages are flattening, suggesting that downside momentum has stalled and the pair may be forming a higher-low base.
The RSI (14) at 51.07 has crossed back above the neutral 50 line — often a preliminary signal of trend reversal or momentum strengthening.
The pair remains range-bound, but the technical bias is shifting slightly in favour of EUR bulls for the first time in several weeks.
Macro Drivers: Euro Supported by Improved Risk Sentiment
Several factors are contributing to EUR/USD’s stabilization:
Euro-Supportive Dynamics
Risk appetite has improved across global markets.
Eurozone economic signals, while mixed, have avoided further deterioration.
The ECB’s tone has turned mildly constructive, reducing downside pressure.
Dollar Weakness
The has softened as yields have steadied.
Traders believe the may be done with major tightening.
US macro data has cooled slightly, reducing urgency for USD buying.
This macro backdrop creates space for a euro rebound, though upside traction remains cautious.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Level
Importance
1.1620–1.1640
First major resistance zone
1.1700
Breakout level for bullish continuation
1.1550
Support at moving averages
1.1500
Critical downside support
A push through 1.1620–1.1640 would confirm short-term bullish momentum.
A daily close above 1.1700 would break EUR/USD out of its consolidation and signal trend reversal.
Failure to hold 1.1550 would expose 1.1500, the key floor of the current structure.
Sentiment Check: Traders Are Turning Mildly Bullish
Retail flows show increased long positioning
Institutional perspectives have shifted from bearish to neutral
Options flows favour upside volatility more than last week
Sentiment is still balanced — but leaning cautiously positive for euro bulls.
EUR/USD is showing early signs of a potential bullish shift, supported by improving technicals and a softer dollar backdrop. The pair has not yet broken out, but pressure is building.
Bullish Scenario: A break above 1.1620 opens a path toward 1.1700.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold 1.1550 puts 1.1500 back in focus.
For now, the euro is stabilizing and slowly regaining momentum.
Euro Edges Up to 1.1589 as Buyers Reappear – Is a Bullish Breakout Brewing?
