The Maryland political world recently took note of a candidate filing with more emotional extremes than normally meet such a mundane occurrence. Democrats rejoiced; Republicans despaired. What brought about these disparate reactions? Dan Cox filed papers to run for governor.
Yes, of course, you remember Dan Cox. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2022. How did that go? At the top of the Republican statewide ticket, Cox received 32% of the vote.
When the person leading the ticket earns less than a third of the vote, it becomes significantly more difficult for others running for comptroller, county executive, state legislature and even county commission to get 50%-plus-one.
If you want to understand the detrimental effect the Cox candidacy had on other Republicans in 2022, you should seek out Jessica Haire, then an Anne Arundel County Council member who challenged the very liberal incumbent Democrat County Executive Steuart Pittman. She ran more than 7 points ahead of Cox, but not enough to overcome his 38.8% showing in Anne Arundel County.
You could talk to Barry Glassman, one of Maryland’s most experienced elected officials, who ran for state comptroller having previously been elected in multiple elections to the Hartford County Council, the House of Delegates, the state Senate and as Hartford County executive. Glassman ran more than 6 points ahead of Cox statewide, but not enough to overcome the drag that a 32% vote share for the party’s gubernatorial nominee places on every other Republican on the ballot.
So why did Cox run so poorly? I would suggest it was because he exhibited a total lack of understanding of the Maryland electorate. As a state delegate, Cox tried to impeach Gov. Larry Hogan, whose approval rating hovered near 70%. Then, as a candidate for governor, in a state that is more than two-to-one Democratic in registration, Cox spent time running to Mar-a-Lago to be endorsed by then-former-President Donald Trump. Cox then spent some of his limited campaign funds to spread news of his Trump endorsement, accompanied by his picture with the former president.
So here is what’s wrong with that. In 2020, as the incumbent president of the United States, running for re-election, Trump received 32% of the vote in Maryland — 32%! That number sound familiar? No one in their right mind would tie their candidacy two years later to someone with that track record. Dan Cox did and led Republicans to an ignominious defeat.
Republican primary voters who do stupid things and vote for candidates with no chance of winning suffer the consequences. Winning the primary does not allow you to make public policy. You must win the general election.
Could Cox do better in 2026 than he did in 2022? Not much. In 2024, Trump improved his previous vote total by a full 2%.
If you vote in Republican primaries, please give serious consideration to following this well-intended advice. Do not vote for the most conservative candidate. Vote for the most conservative candidate who can win in November. Republicans who vote for candidates who have no chance of winning in November enable the implementation of the left-wing agenda that burdens all of us with less freedom, higher taxes, new and increased fees, bigger government, increased spending, ongoing deficits, lack of concern for government efficiency and wacky ideas like a commission to study reparations. It is up to you. Do not punch Wes Moore’s ticket for a second term. Vote for a Republican primary candidate who has a fighting chance to win in November.
The deadline for an individual to withdraw his candidacy is Feb. 26. If Dan Cox truly wants to see conservative governance in Maryland, he should avail himself of the opportunity.
Kevin Igoe is the former deputy chief of staff of the Republican National Committee and former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party. He served as chief of staff of the Maryland Department of Budget and Management and was the political consultant to elected Maryland Republican officials at the gubernatorial, state legislative and county level.
Dan Cox’s run for governor is a nightmare for Republicans
