When will government shutdown end? Odds on next vote to reopen DHS

A Senate vote to end the government shutdown and restore a DHS funding lapse has stalled in the Senate this week — though the SAVE Act passed its crucial first step at 4 p.m. ET today, March 17 — as we near the second-longest shut down in history, including partial government shutdowns.
Without a next Senate vote on the DHS shutdown in sight, the latest betting odds on Polymarket and Kalshi chance the shutdown lasts through mid-April, with over $10 million combined in trade volume in real-time, live odds today.
The latest shutdown updates and odds on when the Senate votes again come amid a third failed Senate vote last week to reopen DHS on a House-passed measure HR 7147 to fund DHS agencies through September. One lone Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman, voted yes, with Democrats demanding ICE be reined following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota in January.
Around 4 p.m. ET today, the Senate voted 51-48 to open debate on the SAVE Act as Trump has demanded Congress pass the bill before the midterms, despite it having slim chances of passing the full Senate. Now passed, a Republican debate is expected to last days (even nights and weekends) as they make a case for the bill, according to the Washington Post.
As the DHS shutdown drags on, TSA wait times tick up and airports face delays and cancellations as TSA agents go without full paychecks. Here’s the latest Kalshi and Polymarket odds predicting how long the government shutdown lasts.
How long will the government shutdown last? DHS shutdown news
The Kalshi government shutdown betting odds forecast the shutdown lasts 64 days, based on the price of recent trades, and Polymarket betting odds predict the shutdown lasts after March 31, with 75% odds. In a stark and unusual contrast to Kalshi, Polymarket chances the shutdown lasts 60+ days at 44 cents (43% odds).
Kalshi government shutdown
With over $8.8 million trade volume today across two markets, here’s the latest Kalshi betting odds on how long the government shutdown lasts and when DHS funding will happen. The latest projections on the partial government shutdown length are reported live, in real-time:
98% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 21 (35+ days)
96% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 26 (40+ days)
75% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 31 (45+ days)
61% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on April 5 (50+ days)
54% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on April 15 (60+ days)
44% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on April 25 (70+ days)
Polymarket government shutdown
Polymarket betting odds of how long the DHS shutdown lasts predicted the government shutdown lasts 44 days, with 78% chances in the latest live odds and projections on the legal US prediction market showed. With over $2 million in trade volume across two markets, the Polymarket odds show:
78.5% chance of ending after March 31
12% chance it ends March 24-27
7% chance it ends March 28-31
On another Polymarket shutdown market, 44% of bettors forecast the DHS shutdown lasts 60+ days.
Was there a Senate vote today?
A Senate vote to end the government shutdown was not on the Senate schedule today, Tuesday, March 17, 2026. The Senate was live on the floor this afternoon and voted 51-48 to open debate on its SAVE Act voter ID bill. Republicans reached the simple majority vote (51 votes) to continue debating the SAVE America Act, which Trump has demanded Congress pass before the midterms.
The SAVE America Act has not yet passed and needs 60 votes to overcome a Democratic filibuster. Long days of debate are expected that could stretch into night and weekends.
Will the next Senate vote be enough to pass DHS funding bill?
Odds lawmakers declare the government shutdown 2026 over today is slim with no planned vote to reopen the government and end the DHS shutdown. Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats remain in a bitter stalemate over a DHS funding bill in the 2026 budget as Democrats demand ICE reforms following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota in January
A third Senate vote failed last week to reach 60 votes needed to pass, with just one lone Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, crossing party lines. While heated exchanges have taken place on the Senate floor this week over the DHS funding lapse, with TSA agents not getting paid, the next Senate vote is not yet on the Senate calendar this week.
While betting odds give the shutdown an aggregate 45-day length, at least 17% of people say the shutdown lasts 90+ days, through May 15, per Kalshi predictions. Some 23% of people on Polymarket say the shutdown lasts 60+ days.
How long is the current government shutdown?
The current government shutdown, or partial shutdown, started Feb. 14, 2026, and hit 32 days today, Tuesday, March 17, 2026. It is nearing the second-longest shutdown in US history, which was 34 days. See more below.
When was the last government shutdown?
The last government shutdown in 2025 was also the longest government shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, from Oct. 1, 2025, to Nov. 1, 2025. Senate Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded, only passing (temporary) funding bills through Jan. 30.
A partial shutdown in 2018-2019 lasted 34 days under Trump’s first term, after the Senate failed to pass a spending bill that included border wall funding.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.