Dear Andy: Lessons from the transfer portal, Group of 5 to Power 5 coach pipeline

The transfer portal is bursting at the seams, and you have questions …
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Andy, in regard to individual programs, what can the transfer portal tell us about the current health of a program? Obviously, you don’t want to lose any talent, but what does the number of outgoing/incoming transfers tell us? Are there any red flags that can show up? Help us read between the lines. — Benjamin
This is a great question because not all transfers are equal. Sometimes, a coach is trying to open up roster spots by gently — or not-so-gently — encouraging older players who haven’t made much impact on the field to leave and find a place where they might be able to play more meaningful snaps. Other times, a player leaves who absolutely is part of the program’s future plans. This is when you should be concerned. If it’s a one-off personality dispute with a coach, that’s not a big deal. If five players who might be starters next year leave, then it’s a sign the program is in trouble. Let’s examine a few programs during the past few offseasons and translate what the transfer portal activity said about those programs.
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The Completely Healthy Program: Georgia’s past offseason is a good example of how a very healthy program looks. Defensive back Latavious Brini left to go start at Arkansas, but that was after William Poole solidified himself as No. 1 at Georgia’s star position. Cornerback Ameer Speed left for Michigan State, but that was after Kelee Ringo had taken his starting job in Athens. Even when receiver Jermaine Burton — who finished second on a national title team in receiving yards — left for Alabama, no one seemed particularly worried. Why? Because Burton’s Wins Above Replacement number wasn’t all that different from some of the other receivers on Georgia’s roster. With potential full healthy seasons from Kearis Jackson and Dominick Blaylock, losing Burton wasn’t a big deal.
Meanwhile, Georgia coach Kirby Smart worked to keep players he still wanted in the program. Offensive lineman Amarius Mims entered the portal and appeared headed for Florida State. But Mims was convinced that his time at Georgia would come and the Bulldogs would develop him for the NFL at a reasonable rate.
The ultimate sign of health is that every player a program loses is leaving because he can get a better opportunity to play elsewhere. It means he’s been beaten out by the current players on the roster.
That Georgia didn’t take any players out of the portal last offseason might have been the scariest, most telling stat of the year. It meant Georgia coaches thought the players they had were better than any of the players they could get (which is almost everyone in the portal).
The Flip This Roster Program: Sometimes a new (or new-ish) coach wants to coach a group that includes a lot of his own recruits. In the portal era, it’s easier than ever to completely reshape a roster in the offseason. We saw Lincoln Riley radically change USC’s roster last offseason, and the Trojans went from 4-8 to 10-2. Billy Napier got hired at Florida and had some excellent players (guard O’Cyrus Torrence and back Montrell Johnson) follow him from Louisiana-Lafayette, but Napier didn’t try to make massive changes. Judging by the number of Dan Mullen-era recruits (most of whom haven’t played much) pouring into the portal since it opened last week, that flip is underway. This will make for a very thin roster in Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl against Oregon State, which is why the oddsmakers have the Beavers as a 10.5-point favorite.
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Another school that likely will have to make such a flip in a coach’s first offseason is Auburn. Hugh Freeze doesn’t have much choice but to flip the roster because of a confluence of events:
• The Tigers are losing a good chunk of talent as draft-eligible players head to the NFL. This group includes edge rushers Derick Hall and Colby Wooden, tailback Tank Bigsby, linebacker Owen Pappoe and versatile offensive lineman Brandon Council.
• Part of the reason Freeze is there is that previous coach Bryan Harsin did not recruit at the level required to be successful at Auburn.
Combine those two things, and Freeze must find a lot of talent in the portal if the Tigers hope to be competitive in his first season. And it seems like Freeze is doing that. Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall entered the transfer portal on Monday, and Freeze’s Tigers are in hot pursuit.
The Everybody Panic Program: Arizona State’s offseason last year was a great example of this. With uncertainty swirling amid an NCAA investigation and assistants getting fired as a result of that investigation, the Sun Devils’ roster was a shell of its previous self by the time the 2022 season began.
Three-year starting quarterback Jayden Daniels was at LSU. Defensive tackle Jermayne Lole was supposed to return from injury and be a force, but he wound up at Louisville. Linebacker Eric Gentry was named a freshman All-American at Arizona State, but he started in 2022 at USC. Receiver Johnny Wilson was barely used in 2021 in Tempe, but he led Florida State — which went 9-3 — in receiving yards. Ricky Pearsall led the Sun Devils in receiving in 2021. He led Florida in receiving in 2022.
When your most productive players and some of your better prospects are leaving, you’re in deep trouble. The players who left got out before coach Herm Edwards was fired early in the season. Those who stayed endured a miserable year.
As of Wednesday, 22 Texas A&M players had entered the transfer portal. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
As you read those, you’re probably wondering where certain programs belong on that continuum. More specifically, you’re probably wondering where Texas A&M belongs on that continuum.
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Freshman defensive back Smoke Bouie became the 22nd player on Texas A&M’s roster to hit the portal when he announced his intent to transfer on Wednesday. You might assume that puts the Aggies into the “Everybody Panic” category. I don’t think Texas A&M belongs on the “Completely Healthy” list, but I wouldn’t put the Aggies on the Panic list, either, despite the high number of players in the portal.
If any of the following players hit the portal, then feel free to start panicking …
• QB Conner Weigman
• WR Evan Stewart
• TE Donovan Green
• DT Walter Nolen
• DE Shemar Stewart
• DE LT Overton
Those are the core members of the top-ranked 2022 recruiting class who made the biggest impact on the field this season. When Sam Khan and I worked on this story about what went wrong this season in College Station, we were told by multiple people that this group intends to stick it out and try to bring Texas A&M to a championship level. If these players do stick together, it’s a talented young group around which to build. Plus, the players who signed with the Aggies in the years immediately prior were rated fairly high, too. So while the number of players in the portal suggests a panic, if Texas A&M keeps the players coach Jimbo Fisher absolutely wants to keep, the Aggies certainly would be capable of bouncing back.
That was a great question from Benjamin, and I hope it helps you look at your team’s roster and the transfer portal with a more critical eye.
In your recent podcast, you discussed Sean Lewis going from Group of 5 head coach to Power 5 offensive coordinator, and the benefits of the move when it comes to his future as a P5 head coach candidate.
This still seems like an unusual move. Do G5 schools need to be worried about their HCs leaving for coordinator positions in the future, or will this be a one-off event? Are there additional ramifications to this move, or is it simply that G5 schools lose talent to P5 schools all the time? — Dan
It’s only unusual if you consider moving to a higher-paying job that gives you a better chance to get where you actually want to go to be an unusual move. That’s what Lewis, who left Kent State to run the offense for Deion Sanders at Colorado, is doing.
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Let’s look at who has gotten the Power 5 head coaching jobs in the past four cycles, minus coaches who moved from one Power 5 head coaching job to another.
Power 5 coordinators or position coaches
2023: Brent Key (Georgia Tech position coach to Georgia Tech), Ryan Walters (Illinois defensive coordinator to Purdue), Kenny Dillingham (Oregon offensive coordinator to Arizona State)
2022: Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame DC to Notre Dame), Mike Elko (Texas A&M DC to Duke), Dan Lanning (Georgia DC to Oregon), Tony Elliott (Clemson OC to Virginia), Brent Pry (Penn State DC to Virginia Tech), Brent Venables (Clemson DC to Oklahoma), Joey McGuire (Baylor position coach to Texas Tech), Jake Dickert (Washington State DC to Washington State)
2021: Steve Sarkisian (Alabama OC to Texas), Clark Lea (Notre Dame DC to Vanderbilt), Shane Beamer (Oklahoma position coach to South Carolina)
2020: Jimmy Lake (Washington DC to Washington), Greg Schiano (Ohio State co-DC to Rutgers), Dave Aranda (LSU DC to Baylor), Jeff Hafley (Ohio State co-DC to Boston College), Sam Pittman (Georgia position coach to Arkansas)
Group of 5 head coaches
2023: Hugh Freeze (Liberty to Auburn), Luke Fickell (Cincinnati to Wisconsin), Deion Sanders (Jackson State to Colorado)*
2022: Kalen DeBoer (Fresno State to Washington), Sonny Dykes (SMU to TCU), Billy Napier (Louisiana-Lafayette to Florida)
2021: Josh Heupel (UCF to Tennessee), Bryan Harsin (Boise State to Auburn), Lance Leipold (Buffalo to Kansas)
2020: Mike Norvell (Memphis to Florida State), Lane Kiffin (Florida Atlantic to Ole Miss), Nick Rolovich (Hawaii to Washington State), Eli Drinkwitz (Appalachian State to Missouri)
*Jackson State is FCS and not Group of 5, but Sanders is an example of a sitting college head coach moving from one level to another.
That’s 19 hires who were Power 5 coordinators or position coaches and 12 who were Group of 5 head coaches. Considering most Power 5 coordinator jobs — including all the coordinator jobs in the Big Ten and SEC — pay more than most MAC or Sun Belt head coaching jobs, then absolutely those schools should be worried about having their head coaches poached by Power 5 programs seeking coordinators. At $1.2 million a year, Toledo’s Jason Candle is the highest-paid head coach in the MAC. That salary would tie Arkansas offensive coordinator Kendal Briles and Ole Miss defensive coordinator Chris Partridge as the seventh-highest-paid coordinators in the SEC.
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Lewis, in particular, faced a tough climb thanks to a scheduling philosophy that predates Kent State’s athletic director. Most years, the Golden Flashes were beaten down before they entered conference play. Now? If the Colorado offense works and the Buffaloes win, Lewis will get a ton of credit for their success and will get more looks at Power 5 head coaching jobs.
Andy, why do long drives favor the offensive line? Don’t those big guys get tired, too? — Ezra
Blocking on a long drive is tiring, but it isn’t nearly as tiring for a big guy as getting blocked and then sprinting to wherever the ball winds up. Offensive linemen expend a fairly controlled amount of energy on most plays. If a run goes 8 yards, the offensive lineman is pushing for a second or two and then running those few yards to the ball carrier to try to throw another block to spring a longer play. Defenders must accelerate toward the ball at maximum speed once they know where it’s going. The only time offensive linemen need to hit top speed is blocking downfield on a long gain. And if the gain is extraordinarily long, then the drive probably won’t be.
Defenders, meanwhile, must push back against their blocker or otherwise try to escape him. Then they must get themselves moving in the direction of the ball carrier and get up to top speed. Do this three or four times, and you’ll be exhausted. Mix in some passing downs where the defensive lineman must push or otherwise escape a blocker, chase the quarterback and then run at top speed toward where the ball was thrown, and it becomes even more exhausting. This is why most college defenses try to rotate defensive linemen every four or five plays when playing against an up-tempo offense. It’s more like playing hockey. If you’re doing it correctly, you’re going to need a break. In the NFL, where the officials have more control over the pace of play and offenses might run 60 plays instead of 90, defensive line rotation is less critical. But most teams do it anyway because it’s just tough to sprint at 300-plus pounds.
A random ranking
Reader Michael would like me to rank pizza toppings …
1. Pepperoni
2. Black olives
3. Soppressata
4. Roasted garlic
5. Hot honey
6. Hamburger
7. Fresh basil
8. Mushrooms
9. Bacon
10. Buffalo chicken
(Top photo of USC and coach Lincoln Riley: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)