Analysis-Ukraine Expects No Miracles as Zelenskiy Visits US to Address UN, Meet Trump

By Tom Balmforth
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will seek more support from allies when he addresses the UN and meets Donald Trump this week, but behind the scenes Kyiv is quietly preparing for a new phase of the war in which it relies more on itself.
Kyiv’s hopes of winning tough new U.S. sanctions on Russia are fading, and a new pragmatism in Ukraine makes Zelenskiy’s trip less fraught than some earlier visits to the United States, with lessons learnt from February’s White House bust-up.
Frenetic European diplomacy and a Ukrainian expression of regret after February’s disastrous meeting paved the way for a resumption of crucial U.S. intelligence sharing and weapons supplies authorised by the U.S. president’s predecessor.
Yet intense lobbying has failed to persuade Trump to impose sanctions that would hurt Russia’s war economy sufficiently to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, and Ukrainians are sceptical that the war will soon end.
UKRAINIANS ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE FUTURE
Only 18% of Ukrainians think hostilities can end this year, and a feeling of uncertainty for the future is pervasive in Ukraine, said Anton Grushetskyi, head of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Putin has secured some recent diplomatic wins, including getting a red-carpet welcome at a summit with Trump in Alaska, and there are signs that Ukraine has been switching gears for a new stage of the war in which foreign support is diminished.
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A Ukrainian think-tank that used to study Russia to find targets for government sanctions now does analytics to help the military select targets for drone strikes, said a senior staff member.
The source said Ukraine not only faced setbacks on sanctions and reduced U.S. assistance, but could also lose some other allied support in Europe.
In a sign how Kyiv is trying to turn the screw on Russia itself, Ukrainian long-range drones have hit ports and refineries, prompting a Russian warning of looming output cuts for its oil producers.
‘SUPER IMPORTANT PLACE TO BE’
Zelenskiy is likely to ask Trump for new U.S. sanctions on Russia on Tuesday, a day before addressing the UN General Assembly.
Kyiv has also been promoting plans for a summit dedicated to Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, an event that appears designed to push back against discussion of any peace deal involving Crimea being recognised as Russian territory.
Putin says more than 700,000 Russian soldiers are now deployed on the front line in Ukraine, and Russia occupies roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory.
Moscow is demanding all of that territory, and more, before it considers talks to end its war in Ukraine. This is anathema to most Ukrainians.
Ukrainian officials portrayed their work before Zelenskiy’s arrival on Monday as pragmatic diplomacy rather than preparations for a make-or-break trip.