Iran intelligence: Initial US intel suggests Tehran was surprised by the Hamas attack on Israel

CNN —
The United States has collected specific intelligence that suggests senior Iranian government officials were caught by surprise by Saturday’s bloody attack on Israel by Hamas, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence.
The existence of the intelligence has cast doubt on the idea that Iran was directly involved in the planning, resourcing or approving of the operation, sources said.
The sources stressed that the US intelligence community is not ready to reach a full conclusion about whether Tehran was directly involved in the run-up to the attack. They continue to look for evidence of Iranian involvement, which caught both Israel and the United States by surprise.
And since the attack, government officials have noted that Iran has provided longstanding and significant support for Hamas, including weapons and financing, that unquestionably contributed to Hamas’s ability to pull off such a massive operation.
But the sources said that this intelligence – which has been briefed to lawmakers on Capitol Hill – has led US analysts to lean toward an initial assessment that the government of Iran did not play a direct role in the attack.
“Iran likely knew Hamas was planning operations against Israel, but without the precise timing or scope of what occurred,” said one US official. “Although Iran has long supported Hamas with material and financial support, we have not currently seen anything to suggest Iran supported or was behind the attack.”
But, this person cautioned, it is premature to draw any final conclusions based on what the US knows right now.
“We will be looking at additional intelligence in the coming weeks to inform our thinking on this issue, including whether there were at least some within their system that either had a clearer sense of what was coming or even contributed to aspects of the planning,” the official said.
Later on Wednesday, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby told CNN’s Jim Sciutto on Max that the US has no intelligence to suggest Iran was “pre-aware or were involved in any of the planning, resourcing or even directing of the operation.”
Another source familiar with the intelligence told Sciutto that Iran was caught by surprise by the timing of the attack.
The sources did not disclose any further details about the nature of the intelligence, which one source briefed on the information said is extremely sensitive.
Some Israeli officials have been more willing to attribute direct knowledge of the attacks to Iran.
A senior Israeli official who has been briefed on Israeli intelligence, told CNN’s Matthew Chance Wednesday that Iran, which has provided longstanding funding and training to Hamas militants, may not have known about the exact timing of the raids from Gaza, but was certainly “aware of the Hamas operation before it happened.”
For some US and congressional officials, the hunt for direct evidence of Iranian involvement is a distinction without a difference.
“I know the administration is woe to peg Iran as responsible, but I think that all roads lead to Iran,” House Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul, a Texas Republican, told reporters following a briefing Wednesday. “We certainly don’t want to see this escalate, but Iran is already in this.”
Tehran doesn’t have advisers on the ground in blockaded Gaza, according to former security officials and other regional analysts, and it doesn’t command the group’s activities. But Iran has for years been Hamas’ chief benefactor, providing it with tens of millions of dollars, weapons and components smuggled into Gaza, as well as broad technical and ideological support.
One source familiar with the intelligence noted that while the group maintains operational independence from Iran – making it plausible that the Iranian government may not have known about the attack in advance – without Iranian support, Hamas could not exist as it does now. In other words, this person suggested, why would Tehran be any less culpable if they didn’t know about the specifics of the attack in advance, given that they enable the activities of the group that carried it out?
“That’s why you can speak out of both sides of your mouth on this,” this person said.
For days, senior US officials have said publicly that they have seen no indication that Iran was directly involved in the attack, even as they have condemned Tehran as broadly “complicit” because of its historic support for Hamas.
“We’re looking to acquire further intelligence,” national security advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “But as I stand here today, while Iran plays this broad role – sustained, deep and dark role in providing all of this support and capabilities to Hamas – in terms of this particular gruesome attack on October 7, we don’t currently have that information.”
This story has been updated with additional reporting.