The US has dodged a recession in 2023, but the economic luck could run out next year

Americans buffeted by still-elevated inflation are burning through their pandemic savings and feeling less confident about the economy. There also are new risks ahead, including a possible federal government shutdown this month and a war between Israel and Hamas that could send oil prices skyrocketing if it escalates .
WASHINGTON — The United States has avoided a feared recession with the help of surprisingly strong spending by consumers and good luck in eluding potentially damaging economic hits, such as a protracted auto workers strike. But analysts said the risk of a downturn in the next year remains uncomfortably high because those trends can’t last forever.
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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday demonstrated the economic uncertainty by holding off, as expected, on another interest rate increase as it recalibrates its fight to lower inflation. But Fed chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the rate hikes, which have been a main driver of recession predictions, aren’t necessarily over.
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“We’re looking at the data but we’re proceeding carefully,” Powell told reporters after Fed officials kept their benchmark interest rate at a range between 5.25 and 5.5 percent. He added that the Fed’s staff is not forecasting a recession although “there’s plenty of risk out there,” specifically citing the Middle East war.
“This has been a resilient economy and it’s, I think, been surprising in its resilience,