U.S. Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) speaks to reporters as he leaves a House Republican caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 12, 2023, in Washington, D.C.
Republicans look poised to win control of the U.S. Senate while Democrats could take the House as voters across the nation cast ballots Tuesday.
Early results gave Republicans an edge, as West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice won a U.S. Senate seat from that state, according to an Associated Press projection. The seat is held now by Democrat Joe Manchin, who is retiring.
Democrats now control 51 of the Senate’s 100 seats. If Democrats lose no other seats, the Senate would be split 50-50 between the parties. Control would then depend on who wins the White House, since the vice president is Senate president and breaks ties.
Getting to 50-50, though, could now be tough for Democrats. Analysts see Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Bob Casey, D-Pa., Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin as potential Republican pickups. Also in play is Michigan, where Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, is retiring.
In California, polls say Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Glendale, is expected to coast to a win over Republican Steve Garvey for the state’s U.S. Senate seat. Sen. Laphonza Butler, a Democrat, was appointed to the seat last year to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
California could play a bigger role in determining who wins the House, as five races are deemed too close to call. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control for the first time since 2019 and make New York’s Hakeem Jeffries the first Black Speaker.
Most independent analysts see the race for control as unpredictable. Close battles in New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and elsewhere will provide early clues about how voters may be leaning.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan group which analyzes House races, sees eight seats now held by Democrats and seven in Republican hands as tossups.
A total of 218 seats are needed for a majority, and if neither party has secured that many seats by the time polls close in California at 8 P.M. PST, the state has a handful of volatile contests that will become crucial.
California races
These are the districts in the state to watch:
▪ 13th. Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, is in a rematch with former Assemblyman Democrat Adam Gray., D-Merced. Duarte beat Gray by 564 votes in 2022, one of the nation’s closest races. The district includes Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, and has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
▪ 22nd. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is again in a duel with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield. Valadao narrowly beat Salas two years ago. President Joe Biden would have won this district by 13 points in 2020, and the district has far more registered Democrats than Republicans. The district includes parts of Tulare and Kern Counties and most of Kings County.
▪ -27th. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, keeps surviving in this district. In 2020, he won a special election and was the first Republican in the state in years to win in a district that had been represented by a Democrat. Garcia faces George Whitesides, the former NASA chief of staff during the Obama administration.
▪ 41st. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, is regarded as one of the country’s most vulnerable Republicans. He’s a powerful figure in House Republican circles as chairman of the subcommittee that writes defense spending bills, but that also makes him a target in a congressional district. Calvert faces former federal prosecutor Will Rollins.
▪ 47th. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, left this Orange County seat to run for the Senate, where she was defeated by Adam Schiff in the March primary. Porter first won in 2018, defeating a Republican incumbent in a seat the GOP had held since it was created in the 1950s. Vying for the seat this year are Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney, and State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine.
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