Iran is skeptical about diplomacy for now, US intelligence says

The assessments align with recent statements from Iranian officials, who reject Trump’s assertion that the two sides are making progress in discussions mediated by other countries. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that the government in Tehran, the capital, had not asked for a cease-fire, despite a statement from Trump that morning that it had, an Iranian state news agency reported.
Trump told reporters Tuesday that the US military would wrap up its campaign against Iran in two to three weeks. But any decision by Iran that it should continue fighting would complicate that objective. The president was scheduled to make a speech about the war on Wednesday night.
The Iranian government could engage diplomatically under the right conditions, said two Iranian officials and a Pakistani official. Tehran wants to see that Washington is willing to talk seriously about ending the war and not just negotiate a temporary cease-fire, they said. They added that the language in public statements from Iran has been harsher than that of private messages it has passed to the United States.
Those officials, including US ones, spoke on the condition of anonymity for this article because of the sensitivities around wartime diplomacy and intelligence.
Trump wrote on social media Wednesday that Iran’s “New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” But he said he would not consider that until Iran allowed ships to safely cross the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian military has effectively closed by attacking oil tankers.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said Wednesday that Trump’s claim that his country had asked for a ceasefire was “false and baseless,” according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, the state news organization.
The dilemma over the strait has become a pivot point in the war, as its closure roils global markets and forces countries around the world to make plans to ration fuel.
It was also unclear to whom Trump was referring when he said “New Regime President.” The initial attacks by the United States and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some senior officials, but the president of Iran since 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian, is alive and remains in office. Iranian clerics have appointed a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the hard-line son of the deceased ayatollah who suffered leg injuries in the first strikes and has not been seen in public, according to Iranian and Israeli officials.
The United States and Iran are exchanging messages through intermediaries and perhaps directly, but are not in negotiations over terms of a cease-fire or ending the war, US and Iranian officials said.
Pezeshkian, on Wednesday, released a letter addressed to the American people that suggested diplomacy might be possible, while also saying Iran would defy hostile powers. It was unclear whether the letter represented a consensus among Iranian leaders. On Tuesday, Pezeshkian said that the Trump administration’s attacks during previous negotiations demonstrated that the United States “does not believe in diplomacy and is merely seeking to impose its own interests.”
Trump has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of ending the war with a diplomatic settlement, but he has also threatened to escalate the war and expand the range of US targets to energy infrastructure and desalination plants, attacks that many legal experts say would be war crimes.
The intelligence assessments, which appear in multiple reports, have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict, one official said.
Senior Iranian officials continue to resist making the kinds of concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missile production that the Trump administration has demanded.
Iran says it has a right to build a civilian nuclear program by enriching uranium, which US officials oppose. And Iranian officials see the military’s ballistic missiles as the country’s main form of deterrence, analysts say. Iranian officials perceive the United States and Israel pressuring Iran to give up both of those as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.
Trump and his top aides have vacillated in their public statements on their war goals and whether the US military has achieved them, which complicates any efforts at diplomacy.
In recent days, Trump has said that the United States has destroyed two regimes in Iran in this war, and that a third, more compliant one is now in place. However, the current government, led by Khamenei, remains theocratic, authoritarian, and anti-American, and has vowed to carry on the fight against America.
Trump has pointed to other goals: He has said he wants to seize Iran’s oil, and he brings up the nuclear program regularly. He also has discussed with US military leaders whether US troops could enter Iran to seize a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that is believed to be in tunnels sealed by rubble as a result of US airstrikes last June.
Iranian officials think they are fighting for the government’s very survival, given the strength of the US and Israeli attack, according to current and former officials. Some Iranian officials are skeptical that any peace deal would be lasting. Their leadership fears Israel could carry out a new attack months later, even if Iran were to enter into a deal, US officials said.
The US intelligence assessments saying that Iran is not currently ready to make a deal have not been previously reported. The Washington Post earlier reported that US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iranian officials think they have the upper hand in the war.
Pakistan has become an intermediary in the diplomatic efforts because of ties between Pakistani and Iranian military leaders. In recent days, Pakistan has persuaded China to join it in publicly calling for an end to the war. China has commercial and military ties to Iran and is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but has been reluctant to engage in substantial diplomacy on the war.
China and Pakistan put out a joint five-point statement Tuesday that called for, among other things, a cessation of hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Iran has been letting China-bound ships cross the strait, but countries across Asia and elsewhere are starting to plan for dire fuel shortages.