Polymarket traders bet record $500 million on U.S.

It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into an active trading floor.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse by June.
The speed and specificity of the markets is striking. Bettors aren’t just wagering on whether the conflict escalates, but pricing the week it ends, who replaces Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and whether U.S. ground forces enter Iran by March 7.
Polymarket’s largest completed market is